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The Paris Agreement on climate change

Reflecting the long-term warming trend since pre-industrial times, observed global mean surface temperature GMST for the decade — was 0. Estimated anthropogenic global warming is currently increasing at 0. Warming greater than the global annual average is being experienced in many land regions and seasons, including two to three times higher in the Arctic. Warming is generally higher over land than over the ocean.

Trends in intensity and frequency of some climate and weather extremes have been detected over time spans during which about 0. This assessment is based on several lines of evidence, including attribution studies for changes in extremes since Warming from anthropogenic emissions from the pre-industrial period to the present will persist for centuries to millennia and will continue to cause further long-term changes in the climate system, such as sea level rise, with associated impacts high confidence , but these emissions alone are unlikely to cause global warming of 1.

Figure SPM. Anthropogenic emissions including greenhouse gases, aerosols and their precursors up to the present are unlikely to cause further warming of more than 0. Reaching and sustaining net zero global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and declining net non-CO 2 radiative forcing would halt anthropogenic global warming on multi-decadal timescales high confidence. The maximum temperature reached is then determined by cumulative net global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions up to the time of net zero CO 2 emissions high confidence and the level of non-CO 2 radiative forcing in the decades prior to the time that maximum temperatures are reached medium confidence.

Climate-related risks for natural and human systems are higher for global warming of 1. These risks depend on the magnitude and rate of warming, geographic location, levels of development and vulnerability, and on the choices and implementation of adaptation and mitigation options high confidence. Impacts on natural and human systems from global warming have already been observed high confidence. Many land and ocean ecosystems and some of the services they provide have already changed due to global warming high confidence. Future climate-related risks depend on the rate, peak and duration of warming.

In the aggregate, they are larger if global warming exceeds 1. Some impacts may be long-lasting or irreversible, such as the loss of some ecosystems high confidence. Adaptation and mitigation are already occurring high confidence. Future climate-related risks would be reduced by the upscaling and acceleration of far-reaching, multilevel and cross-sectoral climate mitigation and by both incremental and transformational adaptation high confidence.

Orange dashed arrow and horizontal orange error bar show respectively the central estimate and likely range of the time at which 1. The grey plume on the right of panel a shows the likely range of warming responses, computed with a simple climate model, to a stylized pathway hypothetical future in which net CO2 emissions grey line in panels b and c decline in a straight line from to reach net zero in and net non-CO2 radiative forcing grey line in panel d increases to and then declines. The blue plume in panel a shows the response to faster CO2 emissions reductions blue line in panel b , reaching net zero in , reducing cumulative CO2 emissions panel c.

The purple plume shows the response to net CO2 emissions declining to zero in , with net non-CO2 forcing remaining constant after The vertical error bars on right of panel a show the likely ranges thin lines and central terciles 33rd — 66th percentiles, thick lines of the estimated distribution of warming in under these three stylized pathways. Vertical dotted error bars in panels b, c and d show the likely range of historical annual and cumulative global net CO2 emissions in data from the Global Carbon Project and of net non-CO2 radiative forcing in from AR5, respectively. Vertical axes in panels c and d are scaled to represent approximately equal effects on GMST.

Climate models project robust 7 differences in regional climate characteristics between present-day and global warming of 1. These differences include increases in: mean temperature in most land and ocean regions high confidence , hot extremes in most inhabited regions high confidence , heavy precipitation in several regions medium confidence , and the probability of drought and precipitation deficits in some regions medium confidence.

Evidence from attributed changes in some climate and weather extremes for a global warming of about 0. Several regional changes in climate are assessed to occur with global warming up to 1. The number of hot days is projected to increase in most land regions, with highest increases in the tropics high confidence. By , global mean sea level rise is projected to be around 0.


Sea level will continue to rise well beyond high confidence , and the magnitude and rate of this rise depend on future emission pathways. A slower rate of sea level rise enables greater opportunities for adaptation in the human and ecological systems of small islands, low-lying coastal areas and deltas medium confidence. Model-based projections of global mean sea level rise relative to — suggest an indicative range of 0. A reduction of 0. Sea level rise will continue beyond even if global warming is limited to 1.

These instabilities could be triggered at around 1. Increasing warming amplifies the exposure of small islands, low-lying coastal areas and deltas to the risks associated with sea level rise for many human and ecological systems, including increased saltwater intrusion, flooding and damage to infrastructure high confidence. The slower rate of sea level rise at global warming of 1. On land, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, including species loss and extinction, are projected to be lower at 1. Limiting global warming to 1. Impacts associated with other biodiversity-related risks such as forest fires and the spread of invasive species are lower at 1.

High-latitude tundra and boreal forests are particularly at risk of climate change-induced degradation and loss, with woody shrubs already encroaching into the tundra high confidence and this will proceed with further warming. Consequently, limiting global warming to 1. There is high confidence that the probability of a sea ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer is substantially lower at global warming of 1. With 1. Effects of a temperature overshoot are reversible for Arctic sea ice cover on decadal time scales high confidence.

Global warming of 1. It is also expected to drive the loss of coastal resources and reduce the productivity of fisheries and aquaculture especially at low latitudes. The level of ocean acidification due to increasing CO 2 concentrations associated with global warming of 1. Impacts of climate change in the ocean are increasing risks to fisheries and aquaculture via impacts on the physiology, survivorship, habitat, reproduction, disease incidence, and risk of invasive species medium confidence but are projected to be less at 1.

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One global fishery model, for example, projected a decrease in global annual catch for marine fisheries of about 1. Climate-related risks to health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security, and economic growth are projected to increase with global warming of 1. Populations at disproportionately higher risk of adverse consequences with global warming of 1.

Regions at disproportionately higher risk include Arctic ecosystems, dryland regions, small island developing states, and Least Developed Countries high confidence.

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Poverty and disadvantage are expected to increase in some populations as global warming increases; limiting global warming to 1. Any increase in global warming is projected to affect human health, with primarily negative consequences high confidence. Lower risks are projected at 1. Urban heat islands often amplify the impacts of heatwaves in cities high confidence.

Climate Change - United Nations Sustainable Development

Risks from some vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever, are projected to increase with warming from 1. Limiting warming to 1. Livestock are projected to be adversely affected with rising temperatures, depending on the extent of changes in feed quality, spread of diseases, and water resource availability high confidence. Many small island developing states could experience lower water stress as a result of projected changes in aridity when global warming is limited to 1. Risks to global aggregated economic growth due to climate change impacts are projected to be lower at 1.

This excludes the costs of mitigation, adaptation investments and the benefits of adaptation. Countries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 1. Exposure to multiple and compound climate-related risks increases between 1. For global warming from 1. The risk transitions by degrees of global warming are now: from high to very high risk between 1.

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Most adaptation needs will be lower for global warming of 1. There are limits to adaptation and adaptive capacity for some human and natural systems at global warming of 1. The number and availability of adaptation options vary by sector medium confidence. A wide range of adaptation options are available to reduce the risks to natural and managed ecosystems e. Some vulnerable regions, including small islands and Least Developed Countries, are projected to experience high multiple interrelated climate risks even at global warming of 1.

Limits to adaptive capacity exist at 1. RFCs illustrate the implications of global warming for people, economies and ecosystems. The selection of impacts and risks to natural, managed and human systems in the lower panel is illustrative and is not intended to be fully comprehensive.

RFC1 Unique and threatened systems: ecological and human systems that have restricted geographic ranges constrained by climate-related conditions and have high endemism or other distinctive properties. Examples include coral reefs, the Arctic and its indigenous people, mountain glaciers and biodiversity hotspots.

RFC4 Global aggregate impacts: global monetary damage, global-scale degradation and loss of ecosystems and biodiversity. RFC5 Large-scale singular events: are relatively large, abrupt and sometimes irreversible changes in systems that are caused by global warming. Examples include disintegration of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1. Non-CO2 emissions in pathways that limit global warming to 1.

CO2 emissions reductions that limit global warming to 1. Different portfolios face different implementation challenges and potential synergies and trade-offs with sustainable development. Modelled pathways that limit global warming to 1. These pathways also reduce most of the cooling aerosols, which partially offsets mitigation effects for two to three decades.

In addition, targeted non-CO 2 mitigation measures can reduce nitrous oxide and methane from agriculture, methane from the waste sector, some sources of black carbon, and hydrofluorocarbons. High bioenergy demand can increase emissions of nitrous oxide in some 1. Improved air quality resulting from projected reductions in many non-CO 2 emissions provide direct and immediate population health benefits in all 1. Limiting global warming requires limiting the total cumulative global anthropogenic emissions of CO 2 since the pre-industrial period, that is, staying within a total carbon budget high confidence.

The choice of the measure of global temperature affects the estimated remaining carbon budget. Uncertainties in the size of these estimated remaining carbon budgets are substantial and depend on several factors. Potential additional carbon release from future permafrost thawing and methane release from wetlands would reduce budgets by up to GtCO 2 over the course of this century and more thereafter medium confidence.

International Climate Finance

In addition, the level of non-CO 2 mitigation in the future could alter the remaining carbon budget by GtCO 2 in either direction medium confidence. Solar radiation modification SRM measures are not included in any of the available assessed pathways. Although some SRM measures may be theoretically effective in reducing an overshoot, they face large uncertainties and knowledge gaps as well as substantial risks and institutional and social constraints to deployment related to governance, ethics, and impacts on sustainable development. They also do not mitigate ocean acidification.

The main panel shows global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions in pathways limiting global warming to 1. The shaded area shows the full range for pathways analysed in this report. The panels on the right show non-CO2 emissions ranges for three compounds with large historical forcing and a substantial portion of emissions coming from sources distinct from those central to CO2 mitigation. Descriptions and characteristics of these pathways are available in Figure SPM. Characteristics of four illustrative model pathways in relation to global warming of 1. These pathways were selected to show a range of potential mitigation approaches and vary widely in their projected energy and land use, as well as their assumptions about future socio-economic developments, including economic and population growth, equity and sustainability.

Further characteristics for each of these pathways are listed below each pathway. These pathways illustrate relative global differences in mitigation strategies, but do not represent central estimates, national strategies, and do not indicate requirements. For comparison, the right-most column shows the interquartile ranges across pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1. Pathways limiting global warming to 1. These systems transitions are unprecedented in terms of scale, but not necessarily in terms of speed, and imply deep emissions reductions in all sectors, a wide portfolio of mitigation options and a significant upscaling of investments in those options medium confidence.

Pathways that limit global warming to 1. The rates of system changes associated with limiting global warming to 1. In energy systems, modelled global pathways considered in the literature limiting global warming to 1. In electricity generation, shares of nuclear and fossil fuels with carbon dioxide capture and storage CCS are modelled to increase in most 1. In modelled 1. While acknowledging the challenges, and differences between the options and national circumstances, political, economic, social and technical feasibility of solar energy, wind energy and electricity storage technologies have substantially improved over the past few years high confidence.

Yannis Stournaras: Climate change - threats, challenges, solutions for Greece

These improvements signal a potential system transition in electricity generation. CO2 emissions from industry in pathways limiting global warming to 1. Such reductions can be achieved through combinations of new and existing technologies and practices, including electrification, hydrogen, sustainable bio-based feedstocks, product substitution, and carbon capture, utilization and storage CCUS. These options are technically proven at various scales but their large-scale deployment may be limited by economic, financial, human capacity and institutional constraints in specific contexts, and specific characteristics of large-scale industrial installations.

In industry, emissions reductions by energy and process efficiency by themselves are insufficient for limiting warming to 1. The urban and infrastructure system transition consistent with limiting global warming to 1. Technical measures and practices enabling deep emissions reductions include various energy efficiency options. In pathways limiting global warming to 1. Economic, institutional and socio-cultural barriers may inhibit these urban and infrastructure system transitions, depending on national, regional and local circumstances, capabilities and the availability of capital high confidence.

Transitions in global and regional land use are found in all pathways limiting global warming to 1. Model pathways that limit global warming to 1. Such large transitions pose profound challenges for sustainable management of the various demands on land for human settlements, food, livestock feed, fibre, bioenergy, carbon storage, biodiversity and other ecosystem services high confidence. Mitigation options limiting the demand for land include sustainable intensification of land-use practices, ecosystem restoration and changes towards less resource-intensive diets high confidence.

The implementation of land-based mitigation options would require overcoming socio-economic, institutional, technological, financing and environmental barriers that differ across regions high confidence. Additional annual average energy-related investments for the period to in pathways limiting warming to 1. This compares to total annual average energy supply investments in 1. Annual investments in low-carbon energy technologies and energy efficiency are upscaled by roughly a factor of six range of factor of 4 to 10 by compared to medium confidence.

Modelled pathways limiting global warming to 1. The economic literature distinguishes marginal abatement costs from total mitigation costs in the economy. The literature on total mitigation costs of 1. Knowledge gaps remain in the integrated assessment of the economy-wide costs and benefits of mitigation in line with pathways limiting warming to 1. All pathways that limit global warming to 1. CDR deployment of several hundreds of GtCO 2 is subject to multiple feasibility and sustainability constraints high confidence.

Significant near-term emissions reductions and measures to lower energy and land demand can limit CDR deployment to a few hundred GtCO 2 without reliance on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage BECCS high confidence. These differ widely in terms of maturity, potentials, costs, risks, co-benefits and trade-offs high confidence. The use of bioenergy can be as high or even higher when BECCS is excluded compared to when it is included due to its potential for replacing fossil fuels across sectors high confidence.

These countries will also require several hundred billion additional dollars to protect themselves from the worsening physical and economic impacts of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. Recognizing this funding gap, public actors have become increasingly interested in using public funds to leverage private capital investment in climate change projects in developing countries. Private sector investors—whether individual investors, private equity including venture capitalists, or larger institutional investors like pension funds, insurance companies, or sovereign wealth funds—have assets under management representing several trillions of dollars globally.

In addition, global, regional, and local financial institutions have the capacity to provide much needed capital and financial services to finance privately-developed climate change projects — if the terms are right. Fostering private participation in low-carbon markets can not only addresses near-term development needs, but also ensure the longer-term viability of these markets. Thus, a unique opportunity exists for public and private actors to work together to increase climate change-related private capital flows to developing countries.

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The initiative aims to improve the effectiveness of public climate finance with respect to catalyzing private capital flows to developing countries. Bridging private and public sector perspectives, it engages with government agencies, public financial intermediaries, as well as private investors and project developers. Initially, the Initiative will focus on leveraging private sector participation in low-carbon development through the targeted use of public financing instruments. The project is comprised of three work streams that examine how donors and intermediaries can more effectively use financial, and other, instruments to leverage private capital and thus create transformative climate change outcomes.

These work streams focus on development finance institutions, public-private partnership funds and initiatives, and bi-lateral climate finance frameworks, respectively. Through these work streams, the Initiative will address important questions, including:. What types of public support best respond to private sector requirements in low-carbon development markets?

What safeguards must the public sector institute to ensure that private capital is leveraged at the lowest cost to the public, while generating the greatest environmental benefits?